126 Cents of Chaos......And the Rand Still Came Out Ahead

While the US slapped 30% tariffs on SA, China signed a landmark trade deal. The Rand swung a total of 126 cents trying to work out what it all means.

It was a week of pivot points...

...and the Rand felt every one of them.

On one side: Trump's 30% tariffs on South African goods continued to bite, with SA now frozen out of the G20 meetings entirely. On the other: China swooped in on Friday with a landmark trade framework agreement that could reshape SA's export landscape.

Add in a delayed US jobs report (thanks to a government shutdown), the Bank of England's closest vote in years, and gold bouncing back above $5,000 after last week's historic crash...

...and you had a recipe for a 126-cent swing.

The result? The Rand clawed back most of its late-week losses to close at R16.02 – a modest 20-cent gain (1.2%) for the week.

Here's how the drama unfolded...

Key Moments (2-6 Feb 2026)

🇨🇳 China-SA Trade Framework Signed: Landmark CAEPA deal gives SA goods duty-free access to China — potential gamechanger

🇺🇸 NFP Delayed by Shutdown: Government closure pushed jobs report to next week — markets flying blind

📊 SA PMI Rises to 48.7: Manufacturing sentiment improves, but still below expansion threshold

🏦 BoE Holds at 3.75%: Bank of England's 5-4 vote was closer than expected — two wanted 50bp cut

📈 Markets in Turmoil: Gold bounces back above $5,000, Bitcoin crashes below $70K (worst since FTX), Dow hits historic 50,000

🚫 SA-US Relations Freeze: AGOA renewed short-term but Trump tariffs remain; SA frozen out of G20 Miami meetings

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Monday: Strong Start for the Rand

Monday opened at R16.22/$ and the Rand wasted no time getting to work...

...pushing aggressively stronger through the session.

By mid-morning, we'd broken through R16.10 and kept going. The momentum was relentless. Early afternoon saw us touch R16.00 briefly before a small retracement.

The driver? Risk appetite was back. Gold was recovering from Friday's carnage, precious metals were stabilising, and EM currencies were catching a bid across the board.

The Rand closed Monday at R15.98/$ – a 24-cent gain on the day. Best start to a week in months.

Tuesday: Testing New Lows

Tuesday opened at R15.98/$ and the momentum continued...

...with early trade pushing us even stronger.

Mid-morning saw us touch R15.90 – the week's low and the best level in over a fortnight. The 15.90 level had been elusive for weeks, and finally we were there.

But here's the thing with extended moves...

...they tend to run out of steam just when everyone's expecting more.

By late afternoon, the Rand had given back some gains, closing at R15.92/$ – still up 6 cents on the day, but you could sense the exhaustion setting in.

Wednesday: The Reversal Begins

Wednesday opened at R15.92/$ and things started to shift...

...with early weakness creeping in.

The Rand tested weaker levels through the morning, pushing back through R16.00 by mid-session. No major catalyst – just the natural rhythm of a market that had moved too far, too fast.

By afternoon, we'd extended to R16.13 as profit-taking accelerated. Gold's recovery was stalling, and risk sentiment was cooling.

Closed at R16.14/$ – a 22-cent loss and the first real sign that the early-week rally was done.

And in other news...

The China Pivot 🇨🇳

The biggest story of the week landed on Friday...

...and it wasn't about the US at all.

China and South Africa signed a framework agreement for the China-Africa Economic Partnership Agreement (CAEPA) – a landmark deal that could reshape SA's trade landscape.

What's in it?

Trade Minister Parks Tau travelled to Beijing for the signing. The deal would give South African goods – particularly fruit and agricultural products – duty-free access to the Chinese market. In return, China gets enhanced investment opportunities in SA, where its car sales have been booming.

The ministry expects the full deal to be finalised by end of March.

Here's why this matters...

...SA is pivoting. Fast.

With Trump's 30% tariffs in place, US-SA relations at their worst point in decades, and SA now frozen out of the G20 Miami summit, Pretoria is looking East. China isn't just an alternative – it's becoming the primary partner.

But let's be clear about something...

This isn't exactly new territory. South Africa has been cosying up to Beijing for years now – the relationship has been deepening steadily through BRICS, bilateral agreements, and political alignment. The anti-Western stance isn't a sudden pivot; it's an acceleration of a trajectory that's been building for some time.

The real question isn't whether SA can diversify away from US dependence. It's: for whose ultimate benefit?

Will these trade deals genuinely help South Africa and its people – creating jobs, boosting exports, and lifting the economy? Or will they primarily enrich China and their well-connected cronies in South Africa, while ordinary South Africans see little of the benefit?

History suggests healthy scepticism is warranted...

...to be blunt, when has a deal with Beijing ever put ordinary citizens first?

But markets, for now anyway, are choosing to see the glass half full.

The NFP Non-Event 📋

Friday was supposed to bring the most important data point of the month...

...the US Non-Farm Payrolls report.

It didn't happen.

The US government partially shut down on 31 January after lawmakers failed to agree on funding – sparked by a spat over DHS immigration enforcement in Minnesota. The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the January jobs report would be delayed.

New release date? Next Wednesday.

Markets hate uncertainty, and flying blind into the weekend without the jobs data added to Friday's wobbles. But here's the contrarian view...

...maybe the NFP wouldn't have told us much anyway.

The US labour market data has been all over the place. Last year's revisions wiped out hundreds of thousands of previously reported jobs. Government layoffs from DOGE complicate the picture. One data point wasn't going to resolve the confusion.

Bank of England's Close Call 🏦

The BoE held rates at 3.75% on Thursday...

...but the vote was closer than anyone expected.

The 5-4 split had two members pushing for a 50 basis point cut (Dhingra and one other), while the majority favoured holding. Markets had expected a more comfortable hold decision.

Why does this matter for the Rand?

The BoE decision feeds into the broader central bank narrative. The Fed held in January. The SARB held in January (4-2 vote). Now the BoE held, but only just. The theme? Central banks are done cutting for now, but the next move is still lower – just a question of when.

Bitcoin's Brutal Week ₿

And if you thought gold's crash last week was dramatic...

...Bitcoin said "hold my beer."

The world's largest cryptocurrency tumbled below $70,000 on Thursday – its lowest level in over a year – heading for its steepest one-day decline since the FTX collapse in 2022. By mid-week, BTC had briefly touched $61,000.

The scale of the damage? Bitcoin is now down nearly 50% from its October highs. All the gains since Trump's election? Wiped out.

What's driving it? A combination of forced deleveraging, US ETF outflows (funds that bought 46,000 BTC this time last year are now net sellers), and broader risk-off sentiment. As one analyst put it: "This is a full-bore, 2022-like crypto winter."

Dow Hits 50,000 📈

In contrast to crypto's carnage...

...traditional equities had a very different week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average broke through 50,000 for the first time in history on Friday, closing at 50,115. The S&P 500 jumped nearly 2% on the day, climbing back into the green for 2026.

The irony? This came after Wednesday's rout that saw the S&P 500 lose 1.2% and turn negative for the year. Tech stocks – which had been hammered all week on AI concerns – staged a dramatic Friday recovery.

Markets are schizophrenic right now. Bitcoin crashing. Gold volatile. Equities hitting records. The Rand? Just trying to find its footing in the chaos.

To get back to the Rand...

This was a week of two distinct halves. Let's see what Thursday and Friday brought.

Thursday: Tariff Pressure Returns

Thursday opened at R16.14/$ and the weakness accelerated...

...with the Rand under pressure from the open.

We pushed through R16.20 by mid-morning and kept going. By late morning, we'd touched R16.43 – the week's high and the worst level since late January.

What was driving it?

A combination of factors. Gold's recovery was losing steam. The dollar was firming globally. And the tariff headlines wouldn't stop – reminders that SA faces 30% US duties, one of the highest rates applied globally.

The BoE decision mid-afternoon brought a brief pause, but the damage was done. Closed at R16.25/$ – an 11-cent loss.

Friday: The China Card 🇨🇳

Friday opened at R16.25/$ and early trade saw more weakness...

...touching R16.26 in the Asian session.

But then the China news broke.

The framework agreement signing caught markets' attention. Here was SA actively pivoting away from US dependence, securing alternative trade routes. Markets liked the narrative – whether it deserves their enthusiasm is another question entirely. (See my thoughts above.)

The Rand rallied through the afternoon, clawing back from the week's highs. We touched R16.00 briefly before settling.

Closed at R16.02/$ – a 23-cent recovery from Thursday's close and a solid finish to a volatile week.

Volatility & Risk Analysis

This was a big week for swings...

...with 126 cents of total movement across the five days. From Monday's open to Tuesday's lows, back up to Thursday's highs, and down again into Friday's close – the Rand covered a lot of ground. Here's how it breaks down:

• Open → Close: R16.22 → R16.02 (20c / 1.2% stronger)

• Max Strength: -32c to R15.90 (Tuesday low)

• Max Weakness: +53c to R16.43 (Thursday high)

• Weekly Range: 53c (3.2%) — Risk: R520K per $1M

• Daily Avg: 23c (1.4%) — Risk: R230K per $1M

For exporters with USD receivables, Thursday's spike to R16.43 offered the best conversion opportunity of the week – more Rand for those dollars. For importers needing to buy USD, Tuesday's dip to R15.90 was the gift – cheaper dollars for those Rand payments.

The 53-cent range tells the story of a market still digesting last week's precious metals crash while trying to price in a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape.

The Week Ahead (9-13 February 2026)

SA: Manufacturing Production (Tuesday), Mining Production (Thursday), SARB commentary

US: Delayed January NFP (Wednesday), CPI Inflation (Thursday), Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday)

Global: No major central bank decisions scheduled

What to Watch

The delayed NFP on Wednesday will finally give markets the labour market data they've been waiting for. Expectations are for around 150-175K jobs added, but after last year's massive revisions, take any number with a healthy dose of scepticism.

Thursday's US CPI will be crucial. The Fed's been warning about tariff-driven inflation, but so far it hasn't materialised as expected. A soft print could revive rate cut speculation for March.

Back home, the China deal will dominate headlines. Markets may cheer the "diversification" narrative in the short term – but don't mistake short-term sentiment for long-term wisdom.

The real test isn't whether the deal gets signed. It's whether ordinary Saffers ever see a cent of the benefit.

Until next week – stay sharp, stay skeptical, and don't let the headlines do your thinking for you.

To your success~

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