Rand Breaks Below R17/$ Amid Global Sell-off
- Dynamic Outcomes
- Nov 18, 2025
- 6 min read
Another week down, and what a week it was for the markets on many fronts....
...with the Rand itself being among the players as it pushed below R17/$ for the first time since February 2023!
And here's the kicker - we called it to a tee with our forecast last week.
But that historic breakout wasn't the only story...
Global markets had one of their most volatile weeks in months, with the Dow hitting record highs before crashing 797 points in a single day, Bitcoin capitulating below $96K (down 17.7% from recent highs), and gold surging 4.3% as investors fled to safety.
Let's unpack the chaos...
Key Moments (10-14 November 2025)
These were some of the major headlines and events over the past five days:
SA Finance Minister Hits Target - Godongwana announced SA's return to the 3-6% inflation target range on Wednesday, strengthening the Rand from R17.14 to R17.05.
US Inflation Shocker - Wednesday's CPI data showed headline inflation climbing to 2.7% (from 2.6%), triggering the worst market selloff since 10 October.
Trump Tariff Activity - Swiss tariffs slashed from 39% to 15% after $200B investment commitment.
Stock Market Rollercoaster - From Monday's rally to Tuesday-Wednesday's record highs (Dow first close above 48K!), followed by Thursday's brutal crash.
Crypto Carnage - Bitcoin plunged from 96K, shedding 17.7% as $1.1 billion in positions got liquidated.
The week kicked off with the Rand opening around R17.28/$ on Monday morning...
...as markets rallied on news that the US Senate was moving to end the government shutdown that had been dragging on for weeks.
The Dow surged 381 points, the Nasdaq jumped 2.27%, and risk appetite was back in play.
By Tuesday, that optimism reached fever pitch...
...as the Dow hit a RECORD close of 48,254 - marking the first time ever it closed above the 48K level!
The local unit traded sideways in the R17.10-R17.15 range, seemingly content to let the global party play out without getting too involved.
Then came Wednesday...
...and with it, Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana's Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement.
The headline?
South Africa had returned to the SARB's 3-6% inflation target range!
The Rand immediately strengthened from R17.14 to R17.05 in response...
...as markets welcomed the news that SA's inflation battle was finally showing results.
But the celebration was short-lived.
Later that same day, across the Atlantic, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics dropped a bombshell...
US CPI data showed headline inflation climbing to 2.7% (up from 2.6%), with core inflation holding at 3.3%.
The market's reaction?
Brutal.
The Dow crashed 797 points (-1.65%), the S&P plunged 1.66%, and the Nasdaq tanked 2.29% - marking the worst day since 10 October.
Why the panic?
Well, mainstream economists would tell you because higher inflation means the Fed is less likely to cut rates in December...
...with Fed Chair Powell wasted no time reiterating his commitment to "fighting inflation" in his post-CPI comments....
Rate cut odds for December immediately tumbled from the mid-60% range down to just 49%...
But the underlying picture Sentiment had reached an extreme, and there was no one left to push the market higher...
...like the last ripple on the last wave of an incoming tide.
And when the tide turns, things can change fast.
But here's where it gets interesting...
While global equity markets were in freefall, the Rand kept pushing lower, hitting R17.04/$ by day's end, and is so doing pushing below October's support levels...
...and as it so happened, a much-needed short-term update to our forecast was needed.
And in it, we called for "down before bottoming" with a target range of 17.08-16.89...
...and Wednesday's R17.04 was just the opening act.
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Meanwhile, in other big news...
Trump Tariffs Continue to Earn Concessions
The Trump administration announced it was lowering Swiss tariffs from 39% to 15% after Switzerland committed to a $200 billion investment in the US.
This isn't just another headline.
It's a window into how Trump's tariff playbook actually works...
The initial 39% threat was never about permanent policy - it was the opening bid in a negotiation.
Switzerland saw the writing on the wall, came to the table with a massive investment commitment, and walked away with a 62% tariff reduction.
That's deal-making 101.
And it's playing out across the board - ongoing China tariff talks saw the November 10 deadline extended as both sides negotiate...
...suggesting Trump's tariff threats are a lever to both getting existing trading partner tariffs lowered as well as extracting concessions and favorable direct investment.
Gold pushes back above $4,200 per ounce
Gold surged during the week's chaos, climbing from around 4,220/oz by Thursday after the CPI shock.
Safe-haven flows were in full effect as investors fled equities...
...with gold ending the week around 4,185/oz, up roughly 4.3% for the week.
Bitcoin has another nightmare week
Bitcoin, on the other hand, had another nightmare few days.
The crypto started the week around $106K after bouncing on hopes the government shutdown would end...
...but Wednesday's CPI data triggered a cascade of selling.
By Thursday, Bitcoin had crashed below $100K for the third time this month.
And Friday?
Full capitulation.
Bitcoin plunged to around 96K, down a staggering 17.7% from its recent highs...
...as spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a massive 1.1 billion in leveraged positions got liquidated.
The third-largest weekly ETF outflow on record.
Ouch!
Want to know where to next?
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Anyway, back to the Rand....
While many were expecting the Rand to be battered by global selloffs, instead Thursday brought something truly remarkable...
...the Rand smashed through to R16.95/$ - its strongest level since February 2023!
From Wednesday's R17.04 to Thursday's R16.95 - another 9 cents...
...putting us dead center of that 17.08-16.89 target range.
And then pushed back to end the day at R17.03/$...
...exactly what our cycle analysis predicted!
Friday saw the Rand push higher to test R17.20 as global markets continued to be in chaos, with the Dow dropping a further 309 points, despite the Nasdaq managing to make some recovery in late after noon trade.
As the Rand ended the week back under R17.10/$...
...overall a pretty impressive performance from the local unit!
Volatility & Risk Analysis
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his week showcased the Rand's resilience in spectacular fashion - pushing through a historic level that hasn't been touched in nearly two years.
Open to Close Move: The Rand opened the week at R17.28/$ and closed at R17.07/$, representing an 21c strengthening or 1.2% gain for the week. But that headline number doesn't capture Thursday's historic breakthrough to R16.95 - the first time below R17 since February 2023.
To put it in numbers:
Weekly Move: 21c (1.2% stronger)
Average Daily Range: 13.6c (0.80%)
Weekly Range: 37c from low of R16.95/$ to R17.32/$ high (2.1% swing)
Maximum Single-Day Move: 20c on Thursday
Average Daily Risk per $1 Million Exposure: R136,000
Weekly Risk per $1 Million Exposure: R370,000
The relatively contained average daily ranges - despite Thursday's historic push - suggest the market traded in an orderly fashion without panic or gaps.
For those with Dollar exposures, this week offered a textbook example of how breakouts are not always a panic signal, but are sometimes an opportunity - (for importers to get in and for exporters to sit tight.
And the best part?
...we called it perfectly with our forecast targeting 17.08-16.89!
The Week Ahead (17-21 November 2025)
Here's what we'll be watching over the next five days:
SA: Retail Sales YoY (Sep), Mining Production (Sep)
EU/UK: UK CPI (Oct), Eurozone CPI Final (Oct), ECB Minutes
US: Retail Sales MoM (Oct), Housing Starts (Oct), FOMC Minutes
With the US government shutdown ending, we'll finally start getting delayed economic data...
...which means more potential volatility as markets digest the backlog of reports.
The all-important FOMC Minutes (from the November meeting) will be dissected for any hints about December rate cut odds...
...especially after this week's CPI shocker.
Locally, retail sales and mining production will give us insights into whether SA's economy is actually gaining any momentum...
...or if we're still stuck in low-growth mode despite the inflation victory.
And then, of course, there is the G20 starting on the weekend, with the US President a notable (and vocal) absentee!
Lots to keep the markets on their toes...
Until next week - to your success~
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