Rand Recovers after Trump's Shot Across the Bows

Welcome to this week's Rand Review - and apologies for the break in these coming, but we had a few things happening behind the scenes, which we will be sharing soon..

Well, here we are wrapping up another action-packed week that looked like it was going one way...

...before doing a complete U-turn and ending up right back where it started!

The week began with South Africa's removal from the FATF grey list after 33 months - a designation that had hammered investor confidence and made doing business with the country more expensive.

Big news, right?

Well, the market barely blinked.

Instead, the Rand weakened steadily through the first half of the week, hitting R17.58/$ by Wednesday as the grey list liberation was completely overshadowed by global factors.

Chief among them?

Donald Trump's Tuesday bombshell that South Africa "shouldn't even be in the Gs anymore," confirming he'd boycott the upcoming Johannesburg G-20 summit.

But just when it looked like the Rand was in for another losing week...

...the script flipped entirely with the most closely watched economic indicator in the world being cancelled due to the longest federal government shutdown...

  ...with the Rand gaining back all but 2c of the ground lost by Friday close.

Let's unpack what actually moved the markets this week.

Key Moments (3-7 November 2025)

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These were some of the major headlines and events over the past five days:

• Grey List Exit - After 33 months, South Africa was removed from the FATF grey list, but the market's reaction was decidedly muted as global factors dominated.
  

• Trump's G-20 Bombshell - US President Donald Trump declared South Africa "shouldn't even be in the Gs anymore" on Tuesday, confirming he would boycott the Johannesburg G-20 summit later this month.
  

• NFP Cancellation - In a highly unusual move, the October US Non-Farm Payrolls report was cancelled due to the federal government shutdown, leaving traders without one of the week's most anticipated data points.
  

The local unit kicked off the week around R17.27/$ in early Monday trade...

  ...but it didn't take long for the familiar pattern to emerge:

Global factors calling the shots.

South Africa's removal from the FATF grey list on October 25th should have been a catalyst for Rand strength. After all, grey listing had cost the economy an estimated R80 billion and made cross-border transactions more cumbersome and expensive.

But markets had already priced in the expected removal...

  ...and with bigger fish to fry globally, the Rand's response was a collective yawn.

By Monday afternoon, we were testing R17.35/$, with the Dollar Index finding support as traders positioned ahead of a data-heavy week.

Not exactly the grey list celebration the market had hoped for!

Tuesday brought little relief, with the Rand drifting higher to R17.45/$ as weak US manufacturing data weighed on the Dollar, but the moves were measured. New orders and production both contracted, signalling ongoing weakness in the manufacturing sector.

But then came the bombshell...

At a business forum in Miami, US President Donald Trump declared that South Africa "shouldn't even be in the Gs anymore" and confirmed he would not attend the upcoming G20 summit scheduled for November 22-23 in Johannesburg. Instead, Vice President JD Vance would lead the US delegation.

The market's reaction? The Rand weakened further as the comments added to existing concerns about SA's economic trajectory and international standing.

Under normal circumstances, weak US manufacturing data would have given emerging market currencies more breathing room...

  ...but Trump's comments changed the calculus entirely.

By Tuesday's close, we were at R17.48/$ and heading in the wrong direction.

Wednesday saw the Rand push to its worst levels of the week at R17.58/$ as traders squared positions and waited for clearer signals. The ISM Services PMI came in stronger than expected at 56.0, well above the prior month's 54.9, suggesting the US services sector - which accounts for the bulk of the economy - was holding up better than manufacturing.

But here's where it gets interesting...

The divergence between a struggling manufacturing sector and a resilient services sector is creating a confusing picture for the Federal Reserve. Do they focus on the weakness and cut rates? Or do they hold steady because services are still strong?

The uncertainty kept currency markets in a holding pattern, with the Rand trading in a narrow 8c range for the day but still stuck near its weakest levels.

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Then in other news...

Trump's SA Statements Have MSM in a Spin

Trump's Tuesday comments deserve a closer look, because the mainstream media's reaction tells you everything you need to know about why they're so desperate to bury the truth.

The MSM loves to dismiss Trump's concerns as to the SA government's communist tyranny as "false claims" - but conveniently ignores the ANC close alignment with the SACP and its Soviet-inspired Marxist National Democratic Revolution agenda, which have resulted in the Expropriation Bill, BELA Bill and NHI Bill all being rammed through parliament despite universal condemnation, add to that the Hate Speech Bill suppressing speech, Eskom on life support, and BEE policies that have us underperforming virtually every other EM currency this year.

Trump's not wrong - SA's economic decline isn't accidental, it's ideological - a Marxist agenda with a communist end-goal. And whether you agree with his style or not, he's saying what establishment media desperately wants buried.

The timing is particularly significant as South Africa prepares to hand over the G20 presidency to the United States for next year, and amid a review of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a US trade agreement that South Africa is one of the largest beneficiaries of.

Trump's comments aren't diplomatic niceties - they're a shot across the bow. 

And it's about time someone with a global platform said the quiet part out loud!

Bitcoin Dips below $100,000

Also making headlines this week was Bitcoin's tumble below $100,000 on November 4th for the first time since late June, dropping as low as $98,943 as cryptocurrency holders backed off amid growing concerns about tech stock valuations driven by the AI trade. 

The flagship cryptocurrency trended down throughout the week, decreasing by nearly 7% from around $115,000 but managed to close above $103,000.

October's historically strong seasonality failed to materialize this year although it did hit all-time highs.  We are at a critical juncture with the gold of crypto...

...the next few weeks will prove pivotal.

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Anyway, to get back to the Rand...

Thursday morning brought the Rand opening around R17.55/$ as Trump's comments from the previous day continued to weigh on sentiment.

But the bigger shock was yet to come.

In an unprecedented move, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the October Non-Farm Payrolls report - scheduled for Friday morning - would be cancelled due to the ongoing federal government shutdown.

Wait, what?

One of the most closely watched economic indicators in the world...just cancelled?

The shutdown, triggered by a budget impasse in Congress, meant that BLS employees were furlougaged and unable to complete the monthly employment survey.

The market's reaction was confusion mixed with relief. On one hand, traders had been positioning all week for a potentially volatile NFP release that could shift Fed expectations. On the other hand, without the data, there was no reason for sudden moves in either direction.

But here's the twist...

The Dollar actually weakened on the news. Why? Because without employment data, the Fed has less ammunition to justify holding rates higher. The uncertainty gave the Dollar bears an opening, and they took it.

The Rand used the opportunity to begin its recovery, pulling back to R17.42/$ by Thursday's close as the Dollar Index lost ground across the board.

The tide had turned!

Volatility & Risk Analysis

Despite all the drama, the week told a tale of two halves - weakness followed by recovery.

Open to Close Move: The Rand opened the week at R17.27/$ and closed at R17.29/$​, representing just a 2c move or 0.11% weaker for the week. But that flat headline number masks the 31c round trip that happened in between. To put it in numbers:

Weekly Move: 2c (weaker) Average Daily Range: 13c (0.68%) Weekly Range: 31c from low of R17.27/$​ to R17.58/$ high (1.9% swing) Maximum Single-Day Move: 17c on Thursday Weekly Risk per $1 Million Exposure: R310,000

The relatively contained daily ranges - despite the dramatic intra-week swing - suggest the market traded in an orderly fashion without gaps or panic.

For those with Dollar exposures, this week offered clear inflection points rather than chaotic overnight moves that catch hedges offside.

But as we know...

...calm waters can precede much bigger storms!

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The Week Ahead (10-14 November 2025)

Here's what we'll be eyeing up over the next five days:

• SA: Mining Production YoY (Sep), Manufacturing Production YoY (Sep)

• EU/UK: UK GDP YoY (Q3), UK Industrial Production (Sep), German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Nov)

• US: CPI Inflation Rate YoY (Oct), PPI MoM (Oct), Initial Jobless Claims, Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov)

  
  

With the NFP cancelled, the focus shifts squarely to Wednesday's US CPI release. Inflation data will be even more critical than usual in helping the Fed gauge whether they can continue with rate cuts or need to pause.

Any upside surprise could send the Dollar surging...

...and the Rand will have nowhere to hide.

On the local front, production data is unlikely to move the needle much unless we get a massive surprise. The G-20 summit is also looming on the horizon (22-23 Nov), and with Trump's comments still fresh, any additional diplomatic tensions could weigh on sentiment toward SA assets.

Bottom line?

The Rand survived a week of headline noise and staged a dramatic late-week recovery to end virtually flat. But next week's inflation data could be the catalyst that finally breaks the consolidation pattern one way or the other.

As always, our forecasting models will be keeping us one step ahead of the moves, and with the way global events are unfolding, having a roadmap has never been more valuable.

Until next week

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