The Rand Hits Best Levels Since 2022......Then Gives It All Back as Gold & Silver Tank
- Dynamic Outcomes
- 12 minutes ago
- 9 min read
It was a week of extraordinary moves...
...and even more extraordinary reversals.
By Thursday morning, the Rand had rallied to R15.64 – its strongest level since early 2022. Central banks on both sides of the Atlantic had held rates. Gold was touching all-time highs above $5,600. Silver had breached $121. The mood was euphoric.
And then? Everything reversed.
Gold crashed 16%. Silver collapsed 40% – its worst day ever. Microsoft wiped out $357 billion in a single session. And the Rand gave back every single cent it had gained – and then some – spiking to R16.21 on Friday as the precious metals carnage unfolded.
A 57-cent round trip in five days. If you blinked, you missed both the opportunity and the pain.
Here's how this rollercoaster unfolded...
Key Moments (26-30 Jan 2026)
These were some of the major headlines and events over the past five days:
• SARB Holds at 6.75%: First pause after six consecutive cuts – 4-2 vote, "temporary pause to assess transmission"
• Fed Holds at 3.50-3.75%: Powell under pressure – DOJ subpoenas, Supreme Court hearing on Fed independence
• Gold & Silver Crash: From all-time highs to biggest drop since 1983 (gold) and worst day ever (silver)
• Microsoft -10%: Worst day since March 2020, $357bn wiped – DeepSeek AI concerns
• Warsh Nominated: Trump names Kevin Warsh to replace Powell – dollar rebounds
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Monday: A Quiet Start Before the Storm
Monday opened at R16.07 – relatively calm after a volatile January...
...with all eyes on Tuesday's SARB decision.
The Rand traded in a narrow 15-cent range, testing briefly below R15.94 mid-session before settling back. Gold continued its relentless march higher, pushing toward $5,100. The dollar remained under pressure, with markets still digesting Trump's comments from the prior week about being "not concerned" about dollar weakness.
By the close, we were at R16.01 – a modest 6.5-cent gain on the day. Nothing dramatic. Just positioning ahead of the main event.
Tuesday: SARB Holds, Rand Rallies
Tuesday opened at R16.01 and immediately faced the week's first major test...
...the SARB MPC decision.
At 3pm local time, Governor Kganyago delivered the verdict: rates on hold at 6.75%. The vote was 4-2, with two members preferring a 25bps cut. This was the first pause after six consecutive cuts totalling 150 basis points since September 2024.
The decision wasn't a surprise – markets had priced in a hold...
...but the tone was notably cautious.
Kganyago characterised it as "a temporary pause to assess the transmission of previous cuts."
Translation: we've cut a lot, let's see if it's working. December CPI came in at 3.6% (which SARB called "the peak"), and 2025 average inflation hit 3.2% – the lowest in two decades.
But risks remain:
Services inflation is still above 4%, and foot-and-mouth disease is affecting meat prices...
...Eskom tariff increases are coming (NERSA approved a 40%+ hike - which is CRAZY)...
And as Kganyago put it: "Geopolitical tensions remain elevated...a rupture in the global political order."
The Rand market seemed to love it.
By the close, we'd strengthened 14 cents to R15.87. The rally was on.
Wednesday: Fed Holds, Rand Surges Further
Wednesday opened at R15.87 with momentum firmly behind the local unit...
...with the FOMC decision in the afternoon expected to be the catalyst for more volatility.
At 2pm Eastern, the Fed announced what everyone expected: rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75%. The vote was 10-2, with Governors Miran and Waller dissenting in favour of a 25bps cut. This was the Fed's first pause after three consecutive cuts in late 2025.
Powell's press conference was...let's call it interesting.
On inflation: "Most of the overshoot is from tariffs." Core PCE sits at 3.0% against a 2% target. On jobs: 2025 created only 584,000 jobs – the weakest year since 2003 outside of recessions.
But here's what Powell didn't mention...
...the context that makes those numbers look very different.
On inflation: Core PCE ended 2024 at 2.8-3.0%. It's now at 2.7-2.9%. That's progress, not stagnation. And blaming tariffs conveniently ignores that inflation was already sticky before tariff impacts hit...
...and that the above numbers are with tariffs, which everyone said would push up inflation.
The fact that inflation is lower (or flat) despite tariff headwinds is actually a positive story that Powell conveniently omitted.
On jobs: 2025 saw the biggest federal workforce reduction since WWII. DOGE cut 300,000+ government jobs. Another 450,000 contractors were affected.
So those "weak" private sector job gains?
They were absorbing a massive public sector contraction. Strip out the government layoffs, and the picture looks rather healthier - in fact a LOT healthier. Again, not telling the whole story, but just the part they want the market to hear.
No wonder tensions between the Fed and the White House are at boiling point.
But the real story was political.
As we mentioned, the DOJ has served the Fed with grand jury subpoenas. Powell characterised this as "unprecedented" and retaliation for Fed independence. He attended a Supreme Court hearing on Trump's attempt to remove Governor Lisa Cook – a rare public show of institutional defiance.
His message to staff? "Stay out of elected politics. Don't get pulled into elected politics"...
...but whether you like it or not, there is certainly more going on here than meets the eye here..
Markets initially shrugged. The Rand surged another 21 cents on Wednesday, closing at R15.76. We were now testing levels not seen since mid-2022.
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Thursday: Record Highs and Lows Abound
Thursday opened at R15.66 – and in early trade we touched R15.64...
...the best level since June 2022. Nearly four years.
For those following our forecasts, this was significant. Wednesday's outlook had identified R15.65-R15.40 as the target zone for a potential bottom. We touched R15.64 – right at the top of that zone.
Gold was still pushing higher, touching an all-time record of $5,627. Silver hit $121.67 – also a record.
The mood was euphoric. For importers watching the screens, this was the moment.
But something shifted mid-session.
Gold started pulling back from its highs. The Rand, which had been testing R15.64, began to drift weaker. By the close, we'd given back 15 cents to settle at R15.81.
At the time, it looked like profit-taking...normal consolidation after a big run.
It wasn't.
Friday: The Crash
Friday opened at R15.81 with a sense that something was off...
...and within hours, the carnage began.
Gold, which had touched $5,598 just 24 hours earlier, collapsed to $4,683. A 16% drop – the biggest single-day move since 1983.
If you thought that was bad enough...
...silver really took the headlines.
From Thursday's record $121.67, it plunged to $73.31 intraday – a 40% collapse.
The worst single day in silver's history. Not "one of" – THE WORST.
The catalyst?
Kevin Warsh.
Trump announced Friday morning that he's nominating Warsh – a former Fed governor and noted hawk – to replace Powell as Fed Chair. The dollar immediately rebounded. Gold, which had been rallying on dollar weakness and Fed uncertainty, suddenly had a reason to sell.
Add massive profit-taking after a parabolic January (gold +15%, silver +30% for the month) and the euphoria in the market (read: sentiment extreme) and you had the ingredients for a violent reversal.
For the Rand, it meant giving back everything – and worse.
As the metals crashed, the Rand spiked to R16.21 – perfectly tracking the precious metals meltdown. Every cent gained during the week, erased in a single session.
By the close, we'd recovered slightly to R16.10...
...but the damage was done. A 57-cent weekly range. From multi-year highs to weekly highs and back again.
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And in other news...
Gold & Silver: A Week for the History Books
The precious metals moves this week deserve their own section...
...because they were genuinely historic.
Gold:
Monday: $5,070
Thursday high: $5,598 (ALL-TIME RECORD)
Friday low: $4,683
Peak-to-trough: -16%
January performance: Still positive despite Friday's carnage
Silver:
Monday: $109.54
Thursday high: $121.67 (ALL-TIME RECORD)
Friday low: $73.31 (!!)
Peak-to-trough: -40%
The worst single day in silver's history
What drove the rally? You'll hear plenty of fundamental reasons – waning confidence in US assets, dollar weakness, Fed uncertainty. But the real driver? Sentiment. Nine consecutive months of gains had created euphoria. Everyone was bullish. And when everyone's on one side of the boat...
...well, you saw what happened.
What about the Rand correlation? Here's the thing – gold, silver and the Rand aren't always correlated. Sometimes they move together, sometimes they don't. But when sentiment aligns across markets, they can move in lockstep...
...and Thursday-Friday was a textbook example of that.
Microsoft's Worst Day Since COVID
It wasn't just precious metals having a rough time...
...Microsoft shed 10% on Wednesday/Thursday – its worst session since March 2020.
The trigger? Earnings that beat expectations but revealed slowing cloud growth and massive AI capex spending. With DeepSeek's emergence raising questions about whether American tech giants are overspending on AI infrastructure, investors bailed.
The result: $357 billion in market value wiped out in a single day. For context, that's roughly equivalent to the entire market cap of JPMorgan Chase.
The S&P 500, which had touched a fresh all-time high on Tuesday (6,978.60), gave back ground as the Microsoft selloff rippled through tech.
Dollar Whiplash: From 4-Year Lows to Rebound
The dollar had quite a week too...
...hitting a 4-year low mid-week before rebounding sharply on Friday.
The DXY started the week around 96, dropped to roughly 95.5 by Wednesday (its lowest since early 2022) as Trump expressed "little concern" about dollar weakness, then bounced back to 96.5-96.7 on Friday following the Warsh nomination.
January as a whole saw the dollar drop 2% – its worst monthly performance since June.
Treasury Secretary Bessent tried to calm nerves on Thursday, reaffirming the US commitment to a "strong dollar policy." But the Warsh announcement had more impact. Markets read it as a signal that the Fed will remain hawkish under new leadership.
For EM currencies like the Rand, dollar direction matters enormously. The mid-week dollar weakness helped push us to R15.64. The Friday rebound helped push us back to R16.10.
To get back to the Rand...
This was a rollercoaster week of note. Let's see what it actually looked like.
Volatility & Risk Analysis
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Here's how the volatility played out:
Open to Close Move: The week opened at R16.07 Monday morning and closed Friday afternoon at R16.10 – a 3c loss (0.19%) for the week.
Maximum Intraweek Rally: -41c (-2.6%) from Monday open to Thursday low (R15.64)
Maximum Reversal: +57c (+3.6%) from Thursday low to Friday high (R16.21)
Weekly Range: 57c (R15.64 low to R16.21 high) – 3.55% swing
Risk per $1 Million Exposure: R570,000
Average Daily Range: ~25c (1.6%)
Risk per $1 Million Exposure: R250,000
For importers, the R15.64 zone on Thursday morning offered the best buying opportunity in nearly four years. If you were watching – and acted – you got extraordinary value. If you blinked, it was gone.
For exporters, Friday's spike to R16.21 was a gift – more Rand for your dollars than at any point in recent weeks.
The whipsaw created opportunity on both sides... just 24 hours apart.
On the forecast front: Wednesday's outlook had the target zone at R15.65-R15.40 for a bottom, with a break above R16.2147 confirming the reversal higher. Thursday's low of R15.64 kissed the top of that target zone. Friday's spike to R16.21 confirmed the reversal – almost to the pip.
The prior Friday we'd noted to expect lower below R15.96. But we only spent a couple of days below that level before the violent reversal kicked in.
The cycle extended longer and deeper than the idealised path – but that's how markets work. When cycles stretch, the reversal tends to be more violent...
...and Friday's 57-cent spike was about as violent as it gets. Having that roadmap made all the difference.
The Week Ahead (2-6 February 2026)
SA: Manufacturing PMI (Monday), Vehicle Sales (Tuesday)
US: ISM Manufacturing (Monday), JOLTS Job Openings (Tuesday), ADP Employment (Wednesday), Non-Farm Payrolls (Friday)
Global: RBA Rate Decision (Tuesday), BoE Rate Decision (Thursday)
What to Watch
The US jobs data (NFP Friday) will be crucial after Waller's dissent highlighted labour market weakness. A soft print could revive rate cut expectations – positive for the Rand. A strong print confirms the Fed's "on hold" stance.
Back home, watch for any follow-through from Thursday's precious metals crash. If gold and silver stabilise, the Rand may find support. If the selloff continues, expect pressure toward R16.20-R16.30.
To your success~
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Disclaimer: The content of this Weekly Rand Review has been prepared by and constitutes the opinion of Dynamic Outcomes, a division of Dynamic Forex Solutions LLC (DFS); it is solely for informational and educational purposes and is not to be taken as advice, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell the securities or financial products mentioned in the content nor a recommendation to participate in any particular trading strategy. No past performances of any strategy or forecasts are a guarantee of future performance; trading in financial markets involves substantial risk, and you need to do your own due diligence in managing this risk. While every care has been taken in ensuring that the content gleaned from third parties is from reliable sources, no responsibility or liability will be accepted by BeztForex or DFS as to the accuracy of the information contained here, which may be subject to correction or amendment at any time after publication.
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