ZAR’s Wild Ride: Pain, Panic and a Punchy Comeback!
- Dynamic Outcomes
- Apr 16
- 7 min read
Apologies for the late issue, but we had some more urgent things afoot to attend to...but this is one that needs some taking about...
Wow - we thought the prior week was hectic...
...but this last one upped the bar quite a few notches!
The markets gave us a seriously heart-pounding week, with the Rand plunging to its worst-ever levels before recovering dramatically to end basically where it had started.
A heady mix of global tariff shocks, stock markets collapsing (and then booming) — plus some local political melodrama — all made for a rather volatile brew...
Let’s unpack what rattled the markets and how the ZAR staged its late-week comeback.ey.
Market Pulse 📊
Price Action: R19.06-19.93 range, with an average daily move over 50 cents!
Technical Setup: Support R19.06, resistance R19.93
Momentum: Rand weakness bias overall, but very volatile
Key Moments (7 - 11 Apr 2025)
Some of the more critical factors affecting price action this week:
US Tariff Bombshell: Trump triggers global panic with new tariffs, sending ZAR reeling, before 90 day pause sparks recovery
DA-ANC Coalition Tensions: Budget disputes and a VAT hike fight have investors on edge.
Global Stock Rebound: Markets recovered globally after sharp losses.
The week began with fireworks.
Monday saw the Rand hammered from the start, opening at R19.08/$ and tumbling nearly 60c by close after Trump’s trade salvos triggered a fresh wave of global risk-off...
...the JSE’s Top-40 got smashed, down some 6%, and bond yields spiked as investors fled emerging market assets.With a record-setting R19.65/$ peak (levels last seen back in May 2023), the ZAR looked in real trouble
And Tuesday brought no relief.
To add to the mix, coalition instability escalated as the DA formally opposed the VAT hike, threatening the unity of the Government of National Unity (GNU), compounding fears and anxiety in the markets.The Rand took more pain, as it slipped further to hit R19.78/$ before recovering a couple of cents.
Then came Wednesday…
...and what a turnaround it was!
It didn't look like it was going to be though, as the ZAR seemed to stutter along before hitting a new all-time high of R19.93/$ - which would normally have meant a spike higher...
...but instead the opposite happened, as the ZAR staged its biggest intraday comeback in months, as it managed to strengthen by a whopping 71 cents, before closing at R19.27/$.
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The trigger?
Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs on all nations - with the exception of China (more on this later).
The markets reacted - and very favourably.
The mood shifted....stocks jumped with a record-breaking bounce....
....and the Rand finally caught a break.
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And in other news...
Trump's Tariff Chess Game
By now, we should perhaps have learnt Trump's modus operandi when it comes to making deals or negotiating. But for many that don't, they were given a lesson last week......and for some in particular it was a hard one!Problem: So the US needs to finally level the trade playing field globally (as we mentioned in last week's issue)...
...but especially with China, with whom the US has a massive $300bn p.a. trade deficit.But at the same time, Trump doesn't want to lose any trade partners (especially to China) - and doesn't want to hurt US consumers and businesses.
So...Move 1: First talk openly about the need to level the playing field, how the US has been taken advantage of for years on trade - and that FULL reciprocal tariffs are coming.
Counter: Countries realize the old way of doing business is probably over; some start talking about reducing tariffs, while others flex their muscles and threaten a tariff war.
Move 2: After a big build up, announce 50% reciprocal tariffs - which now seems more than fair...
...BUT warn countries not to retaliate - and threatens more if they do.
Counter: Over 70 countries immediately call to negotiate (knowing they have taken advantage, but not wanting to lose the biggest market in the world)... ...except China, who immediately retaliates. ...and the EU, who are seriously discussing retaliatory tariffs.
Move 3: Announce a 90-day pause on all countries (even those that had not reached out yet) - except for China, on whom an additional 125% tariff is placed with immediate effect (total 145%).
Net Result: The EU capitulates...other countries rush to make a deal with the US...
...and China is left with headache of note, wondering what had just happened.
It's called Chess - not Checkers...
Trump G-20 Sideswipe at South Africa
Late in the week, President Trump threw fresh fuel onto South Africa's geopolitical fire, suggesting the U.S. might boycott the upcoming G-20 summit in Johannesburg, as he continued to put the spotlight on the government's communistic laws and objectives.
While no formal decision has been made on this, his remarks clearly highlight that his past statements are not just once-off remarks about the situation - and will have implications going forward in the relationship between Pretoria and Washington.
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Getting back to the Rand...
...it had made an impressive recovery on Wednesday, but where next?
Well, fortunately, it was time for a mid-week update, and our analysis showed us and our clients that the Rand was going to have an impressive second half of the week, which was likely to take it back below R19.10/$ (see below - click to enlarge).
Thursday dawned, and initially it looked like our forecast was going to be negated, as the Rand jumped from its open of R19.27 to test our R19.60 invalidation, but then it turned around sharply to claw back some lost ground...
...as local markets were also buoyed by hopes that the VAT plan would be scrapped.
And with that, the Rand managed to close out the day - still somewhat bruised but no longer bleeding - at around R19.37 to the Dollar.
And then Friday (for once) gave the Rand a surprisingly strong close for the week, with traders driving home the advantage on the back of a weaker US dollar...
...as it managed to push all the way down to close out the day around R19.07/$, almost where it had opened on Monday...
...and just where our forecasting system said it was going to go just 2 days prior!
Another move nailed!
Optimism that the ANC-DA coalition would hold, a softer USD, and easing global fears allowed the market to exhale. And suddenly, instead of looking at R20 levels, we had our eyes on sub-R19 levels again...
...and with that, it was time for some weekend away from the madness!
Volatility & Risk Analysis
Some record volatility on both a daily and weekly basis, with no day under 1.9% and Wednesday seeing a MASSIVE 71cent (3.6%) move:
Average Daily Range: 51.5c or 2.7%
This equates to a potential profit or loss of R27,000 every day for every R1 million exposure - with Wednesday being R36,000!
Weekly Range (total fluctuation): 87c or 4.5%...equating to a massive saving or loss of R45,000 for every R1 million exposure simply by taking action at the right or wrong time!
What is so different about this past week is that we had both an up move and a down move of over 4.5% each way...
...which meant TIMING was everything!It was not only making the right decision but also at the right time!
You need an understanding of how the markets work and why you need an objective view (like our charts above) to help you make the right decision at the right time!
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The Week Ahead
The Rand's turnaround was impressive — but let’s not get too comfy.
Political stability remains fragile with the VAT war. And the tariff war isn't over.
Throw in potential triggers like US Retail Sales and ECB rate cut and indications from the Fed to the latest inflation reduction - and we have a chance of another ding-dong week.
If anything, this week past shows how quickly sentiment can shift... and why having a forward-looking strategy matters.
...an essential instrument to offset our natural emotional decision-making - especially in times like these!
Until next week, keep your wits about you!
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This weekly newsletter is brought to you courtesy of Dynamic Outcomes, a Rand forecasting service focused on assisting exporters, importers and individuals in making more informed and educated decision around the timing of their foreign currency transaction – a critical factor in any risk management strategy. This is centred around providing an objective view of where the Rand is expected to move against the Dollar, Euro and Pound over the short, medium and long term.
BeztForex have arranged for our clients to try out the Dynamic Outcomes Rand forecasting service for a full 14 days at no cost and no obligations:
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Disclaimer: The content of this Weekly Rand Review has been prepared by and constitutes the opinion of Dynamic Outcomes, a division of Dynamic Forex Solutions LLC (DFS); it is solely for informational and educational purposes and is not to be taken as advice, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell the securities or financial products mentioned in the content nor a recommendation to participate in any particular trading strategy. No past performances of any strategy or forecasts are a guarantee of future performance; trading in financial markets involves substantial risk, and you need to do your own due diligence in managing this risk. While every care has been taken in ensuring that the content gleaned from third parties is from reliable sources, no responsibility or liability will be accepted by BeztForex or DFS as to the accuracy of the information contained here, which may be subject to correction or amendment at any time after publication.
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